Welcome Guest! The IOSH forums are a free resource to both members and non-members. Login or register to use them

Postings made by forum users are personal opinions. IOSH is not responsible for the content or accuracy of any of the information contained in forum postings. Please carefully consider any advice you receive.

Notification

Icon
Error

18 Pages«<1314151617>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
A Kurdziel  
#561 Posted : 23 September 2020 11:06:44(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

For mad and pointless conspiracies take a look at the 10 books in the Brentford Trilogy. the beauty of these books is that they're all true and it sort of makes sense! 

biker1  
#562 Posted : 23 September 2020 13:18:17(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: CptBeaky Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: nic168 Go to Quoted Post
I managed to silence a taxi driver last week, his belief was that the virus was engineered as a population control measure, I pointed out that the fatality rate really was not high enough for that to be the case. I then asked him if he really thought our government was really capable of or organising a cover up on this scale given that he had been denouncing them as incompetents for the last 20 mins.

Discussion in a park today with a gentleman

Me> I agree,whilst the rules are illogical in many ways, people should still wear masks, afterall they can save lives.

Him> I don't wear one

Me> Why wouldn't you?

Him> I don't have Covid

Me> How do you know, have you been tested recently?

Him> I don't have it because it is not real

Me> full explanation of how we know it is real and the likely origin

Him> Well it was created in a lab anyway

Me> So which is it, not real or created in a lab?

Him> Do some research.....

Me> I read scientific journals, not sure what other research you suggest

Him> there is your problem, you need to do real research

At this point I realised this was probably not going anywhere.

Obviously another Sun reader. Interesting to ponder if these people profess to not believe in COVID because they have anything approaching evidence, or whether it is a self-denial issue, since if they do acknowledge it is real, that then puts the onus on them to follow the rules and guidance, which they don't want to do
biker1  
#563 Posted : 23 September 2020 13:31:01(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: Roundtuit Go to Quoted Post

Well Biker BoJo has finally granted your wish in that the Police can if necesssary call in HM Forces.

The thought of some young squaddie with an SA 80 enforcing "mask" wearing at ALIDI fills me with dread.

It has always seemed a logical thing to do to me. What we have in many places is effectively a public order issue, where there are illegal gatherings etc. With the best will in the world, the police just don't have the resources to deal with such matters as well as their usual role. Other countries have not been so precious about using troops, and if, as reported, we have twenty thousand troops available, it would make sense for them to help out. I don't think this would go down to the level of checking mask wearing in the local Aldi, but there are other things they could help out with. For instance, at least one county in Wales has a prohibition on anyone entering or leaving the county without a justifiable reason, but like any other rule/law, if it is not enforced, there is little point in having it.
A Kurdziel  
#564 Posted : 23 September 2020 15:11:34(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

As I have said here before the military’s main job is not to act as an on-call load of dogsbodies to pick up other people’s mess. Once upon a time  the military had loads of spare capacity but that is no longer the case and taking operational troops out of their normal role for a significant (and undefined) length of time is not the best use of a national asset.

Even a few years ago when we had the foot and mouth outbreak the military were careful not to over commit to their supporting role. In fact, most of the leg work was done by seconded civil servants and contractors. Basically, the miltary were there as a publicity stunt.

The countries which did call out the army to help out during the pandemic usually have larger militaries than us (often with a large proportion of conscripts) and the distinction between civilian authorities and the military is more vague eg forces like the gendarmerie and Carabinieri which are military forces but with a full time role in internal security and policing.

biker1  
#565 Posted : 23 September 2020 15:52:51(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Going back to basics, what is the purpose of the military? It is surely to defend this country and its people. We have a situation where the people are under threat from a pandemic, and arguably apart from the virus, it could be said that in this case the enemy is within, due to people not obeying rules and guidance and spreading the virus. There have been reported cases of a surge in infections being attributable to events in an area. I don't think this is cleaning up someone else's mess, it's our mess and our country, and if we are ever to get out from under this pandemic, strict measures are needed, which need strict enforcement. Does the army have other more urgent roles at the moment? I doubt it.

John Murray  
#566 Posted : 24 September 2020 07:02:32(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
John Murray

Does the Army have other more important roles?

Well: https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/  arguably, they do.

The history of armed-forces of the home country being deployed to control public order problems is not good....a look at "The Troubles" is in order!

Sending armed troops in, to quell a rave, is a classic example of excessive control.

thanks 1 user thanked John Murray for this useful post.
Sharpe23621 on 24/09/2020(UTC)
A Kurdziel  
#567 Posted : 24 September 2020 08:38:18(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

As I have said earlier this is all down to a lack of forward planning. In 2004 the government passed the Civil Contingencies Act (note civil as opposed to military). This made the public sector as a whole

responsible for preparing for events which might affect the country as a whole. To support this process, they set up the Civil Contingencies Secretariat which drew up 36 scenarios of what might go wrong. One of which was a contagious global pandemic caused by a new respiratory disease emerging in the Far East. For a few years the government ran around getting stuff in place and then they seem to have stopped. I suspect that the bean counters turned up and said that all that prior planning and stockpiling of PPE etc was a “wasted asset” In the bit of the civil service where I  worked  we ran down the foot and mouth stockpiles and the rabies contingency stocks.

A couple of years ago(2016) the civil contingencies secretariat held Exercise Cygnus to see how we would cope with a pandemic- it was an epic fail (See https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/07/what-was-exercise-cygnus-and-what-did-it-find)

You don’t need the military running around beating up people: what you need is a measured response and that requires proper prior planning-bit like health and safety really.

Edited by user 24 September 2020 11:17:45(UTC)  | Reason: spellings

thanks 1 user thanked A Kurdziel for this useful post.
RVThompson on 24/09/2020(UTC)
Holliday42333  
#568 Posted : 24 September 2020 09:55:34(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Holliday42333

I guess, if Boris really did go to Italy to see how they have so  far avoided a second wave, that in Italy you are far more likely to comply with a Carabinieri toting a carbine with dead eyes behind their Persol sunglasses than with a regular police officer. 

As we don't have a paramilitary police to bolster a regular force, the UK's only escallation/support (if that is required) can come from the military.

Edited by user 24 September 2020 09:56:17(UTC)  | Reason: Spelling etc

thanks 1 user thanked Holliday42333 for this useful post.
A Kurdziel on 24/09/2020(UTC)
biker1  
#569 Posted : 24 September 2020 10:01:38(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: John Murray Go to Quoted Post

Does the Army have other more important roles?

Well: https://www.army.mod.uk/deployments/  arguably, they do.

The history of armed-forces of the home country being deployed to control public order problems is not good....a look at "The Troubles" is in order!

Sending armed troops in, to quell a rave, is a classic example of excessive control.

The point made about not sorting out other people's mess is questionable - our military have been sent in to several parts of the world to do just that, the Gulf war and Afghanistan being prime examples, where the justification for our presence was questionable.

A comparison to 'the troubles' is not helpful - this was a very different situation. One faction wanted NI to be part of the UK, the other factor wanted Irish independence, loosely corresponding with religious divisions for historical reasons. British troops were sent in to keep order, whereas arguably Britain had created the problems in the first place. The division of Ireland was an uncomforable compromise that didn't really address some fundamental issues.

What we have in the current case of the pandemic is a situation where sections of the Britsh public have demonstrated time after time that they lack the self-discipline and respect for others to follow the rules to control the spread of the virus. The police are struggling to cope with the situation, exacerbated by cutbacks in resources and not being given adequate enforcement powers. Whereas involving the army might not be an ideal solution, and not one we would normally contemplate, posters objecting to this have not suggested an alternative. The point about proper planning is well made, but unfortunately this didn't happen and we are where we are. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but won't help us at the moment.

John Murray  
#570 Posted : 24 September 2020 12:14:38(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
John Murray

Involving the army will not control anything, it will exacerbate things.

People, and I'm one, still remember the army firing into a crowd of unarmed protestors. Many times.

Please remember that practically all young people will be unaffected by this virus, and that the "rules" make little sense, and in many cases and are even contradictory. Some say that they seem mainly designed to deflect blame, while assuring that many are still infected.

Shutting pubs at 10 is obviously going to do nothing to shorten the epidemic. Keeping children at school is obviously going to lenthen it.

Yep. Clear as mud.

biker1  
#571 Posted : 24 September 2020 13:21:24(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: John Murray Go to Quoted Post

Involving the army will not control anything, it will exacerbate things.

People, and I'm one, still remember the army firing into a crowd of unarmed protestors. Many times.

Please remember that practically all young people will be unaffected by this virus, and that the "rules" make little sense, and in many cases and are even contradictory. Some say that they seem mainly designed to deflect blame, while assuring that many are still infected.

Shutting pubs at 10 is obviously going to do nothing to shorten the epidemic. Keeping children at school is obviously going to lenthen it.

Yep. Clear as mud.

Can't comment about the shooting into crowds of people without knowing what you are referring to. At the moment, the conflict is somewhat one-sided, with missiles being thrown at police, and police having to 'persuade' people to comply

As for the assertion that 'practically all young people will be unaffected by the virus, it depends on your definition of 'young people'. This usually is taken to mean young adults, and they certainly are affected by the virus - see the figures that point to 18-30 year olds representing a surge in infections. Given the behaviour of thousands of them, this is no surprise.

I do agree that the government's rules in many cases make little sense, but some rules are quite clear, usually the ones that some people choose to ignore.

Your suggestion for an alternative to bring this situation under control?

Roundtuit  
#572 Posted : 24 September 2020 19:59:13(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Interesting what has just passed parliamentary scrutiny - a bill that limits prosecution of service personnel (Keir sacking shadow members who voted against) - how would that have fitted with the decades long campaign about "Bloody Sunday'?
Roundtuit  
#573 Posted : 24 September 2020 19:59:13(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Interesting what has just passed parliamentary scrutiny - a bill that limits prosecution of service personnel (Keir sacking shadow members who voted against) - how would that have fitted with the decades long campaign about "Bloody Sunday'?
achrn  
#574 Posted : 25 September 2020 06:59:45(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: John Murray Go to Quoted Post

Shutting pubs at 10 is obviously going to do nothing to shorten the epidemic.

Unless, obviously, the people in the pubs are there to imbibe some sort of intoxicant which tends to lead to a reduction in inhibitions as the night goes on, obviously.

Quote:

Keeping children at school is obviously going to lenthen it.

Possibly, but better that than completely writing off two years worth of schoolkids who will ortherwise remain unemployable for life.

Edited by user 25 September 2020 07:06:26(UTC)  | Reason: spilling

achrn  
#575 Posted : 25 September 2020 07:25:36(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post
the figures that point to 18-30 year olds representing a surge in infections. Given the behaviour of thousands of them, this is no surprise.

You mean travel teh length and breadth of the country when instructed to do so by the government and authorities running universities?

My daughter is at university.  Her university mandated that all students come into residence - remote learning would only be available to those who could demonstrate it was impossible to come to the university. Her halls of residence have closed all the communal spaces except the dining hall and a single common room that can take six people.  There are no communal spaces on coridors (and the coridors are narrow like a ferry - you have to sidle past people at the best of times, and bare concrete walls/ceiling).  She has never liked parties. She (like me) is not good in noisy environments.  Her room is literally about the size of a prison cell and she has no scheduled activities outside her room. No clubs or societies are actually meeting. There have been no freshers events.  She hasn't done first-perosn social interaction than exchange a few words with someone metres away in a meal queue in weeks.  Frankly, at the moment, her life is [expletive deleted].

Meanwhile, the press, and people like you, are apparently blaming her for all the ills in the country.

thanks 3 users thanked achrn for this useful post.
Kate on 25/09/2020(UTC), Sharpe23621 on 25/09/2020(UTC), A Kurdziel on 25/09/2020(UTC)
achrn  
#576 Posted : 25 September 2020 07:49:17(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: achrn Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post
the figures that point to 18-30 year olds representing a surge in infections. Given the behaviour of thousands of them, this is no surprise.

You mean travel teh length and breadth of the country when instructed to do so by the government and authorities running universities?

My daughter is at university.  Her university mandated that all students come into residence - remote learning would only be available to those who could demonstrate it was impossible to come to the university. Her halls of residence have closed all the communal spaces except the dining hall and a single common room that can take six people.  There are no communal spaces on coridors (and the coridors are narrow like a ferry - you have to sidle past people at the best of times, and bare concrete walls/ceiling).  She has never liked parties. She (like me) is not good in noisy environments.  Her room is literally about the size of a prison cell and she has no scheduled activities outside her room. No clubs or societies are actually meeting. There have been no freshers events.  She hasn't done first-perosn social interaction than exchange a few words with someone metres away in a meal queue in weeks.  Frankly, at the moment, her life is [expletive deleted].

Meanwhile, the press, and people like you, are apparently blaming her for all the ills in the country.

Oh, and I forgot - and refusing to rule out banning her from returning home.  We have a conservative government publicaly musing about forced internment of inncocent citizens.  Presumably that's what the army will be for.

Her life is a great steaming pile of [expletive deleted] at the moment, but you carry on blaming her.

thanks 1 user thanked achrn for this useful post.
A Kurdziel on 25/09/2020(UTC)
A Kurdziel  
#577 Posted : 25 September 2020 08:15:21(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

And of course she is paying for the privilege.

PS what happens at Christmas if they can't come home?

biker1  
#578 Posted : 25 September 2020 08:27:15(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: achrn Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post
the figures that point to 18-30 year olds representing a surge in infections. Given the behaviour of thousands of them, this is no surprise.

You mean travel teh length and breadth of the country when instructed to do so by the government and authorities running universities?

My daughter is at university.  Her university mandated that all students come into residence - remote learning would only be available to those who could demonstrate it was impossible to come to the university. Her halls of residence have closed all the communal spaces except the dining hall and a single common room that can take six people.  There are no communal spaces on coridors (and the coridors are narrow like a ferry - you have to sidle past people at the best of times, and bare concrete walls/ceiling).  She has never liked parties. She (like me) is not good in noisy environments.  Her room is literally about the size of a prison cell and she has no scheduled activities outside her room. No clubs or societies are actually meeting. There have been no freshers events.  She hasn't done first-perosn social interaction than exchange a few words with someone metres away in a meal queue in weeks.  Frankly, at the moment, her life is [expletive deleted].

Meanwhile, the press, and people like you, are apparently blaming her for all the ills in the country.

The thousands of young people I was referring to are those attending illegal raves and street parties, as has been well demonstrated over the last few weeks. I can't comment on what life is like at universities, since they have only just returned, but from my memories of halls of residence I can imagine it is quite bleak. Sorry if you took my comments as a criticism of students, they weren't meant to be, although I note that some students have been somewhat remiss in holding fresher parties and hitting the town ahead of further restrictions; hopefully this is a small minority.
achrn  
#579 Posted : 25 September 2020 08:39:16(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: A Kurdziel Go to Quoted Post

PS what happens at Christmas if they can't come home?

Dunno, but as noted, that looks like internment to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-54278053

I am normally (overly, according to my wife) law abiding.  I think refusing to allow my daughter home at the end of what will have been a hellish miserable period of her life (it's hellish now, and to be honest breaks my heart to see the 'brave face' she puts on with calls to her mother, which of course her mother sees straight through) would be what pushes me over the edge to actual civil disobedience, violent if necesary.

thanks 2 users thanked achrn for this useful post.
A Kurdziel on 28/09/2020(UTC), webstar on 29/09/2020(UTC)
peter gotch  
#580 Posted : 25 September 2020 08:45:45(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
peter gotch

As someone who didn't pay for the privilege - even got a grant to go to Uni - I sympathise with the current generation of students.

I live just over a mile away from halls of residence associated with a current Covid outbreak at the University of Glasgow, which means that I am a mile closer to their main campus than they are.

I hope their corridors are a bit wider than those where achrn's daughter is housed, but essentially, these students (some just starting out away from the parental homes) are stuck and the rooms don't come cheap.

AND all the other students in Scotland have been told NOT to go to their parents' at least this weekend - Christmas - who knows?

Manion16110  
#581 Posted : 28 September 2020 10:31:09(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Manion16110

Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. The actual cause of death may not be COVID-19 in all cases. People who died from COVID-19 but had not tested positive are not included and people who died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included. Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

A death in someone who has tested positive becomes progressively less likely to be directly due to COVID-19 as time passes and more likely to be due to another cause.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/12/behind-the-headlines-counting-covid-19-deaths/

The numbers do not add up to me

biker1  
#582 Posted : 28 September 2020 10:31:18(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Remembering my experience of halls of residence, they were/are pretty bleak places. I described them as filing cabinets for students. A room no bigger than a prison cell, with a bed, a desk, a chair, a small wardrobe and a sink. That was it, and it was your home for most of your first year at uni. Without the possibility of social interaction, they must be even more bleak, so I do sympathise with achrn (although I could have done without the guy opposite who played Clifford T Ward and David Bowie continuously with his door open).

Cheeky Me  
#583 Posted : 28 September 2020 14:06:44(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Cheeky Me

Originally Posted by: A Kurdziel Go to Quoted Post

PS what happens at Christmas if they can't come home?

We are planning on holding a civil wedding between two turkeys, this will allow 15 people to attend, which is enough to accommodate our usual Christmas gathering. However, should the birth of my nephew happen before Christmas, we will be forced to murder said turkeys and hold a funeral for up to30 people instead. 

thanks 2 users thanked Cheeky Me for this useful post.
webstar on 29/09/2020(UTC), biker1 on 29/09/2020(UTC)
A Kurdziel  
#584 Posted : 28 September 2020 14:12:14(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

Halls of residence and students’ flats are DESIGNED to make them socialise. The rooms are just crash pads. At least prisons are designed to hold people.  

Manion16110  
#585 Posted : 28 September 2020 15:53:30(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Manion16110

Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.  The actual cause of death may not be COVID-19 in all cases.  People who died from COVID-19 but had not tested positive are not included and people who died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included.  Data from the four nations are not directly comparable as methodologies and inclusion criteria vary.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths

biker1  
#586 Posted : 29 September 2020 08:18:50(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

Originally Posted by: A Kurdziel Go to Quoted Post

Halls of residence and students’ flats are DESIGNED to make them socialise. The rooms are just crash pads. At least prisons are designed to hold people.  

Accepted, but that's alright if you are a social person. For introverts, they can be a nightmare.
Roundtuit  
#587 Posted : 29 September 2020 13:54:32(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Were doomed! DOOMED!

This morning it was a radio interview where a cabinet minister could not explain the new rules closely followed by Bojo "miss-spoking" at a training centre.

If the great & the good do not understand their directions to society what chance the rest of us?

captcah SaSS

Roundtuit  
#588 Posted : 29 September 2020 13:54:32(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Were doomed! DOOMED!

This morning it was a radio interview where a cabinet minister could not explain the new rules closely followed by Bojo "miss-spoking" at a training centre.

If the great & the good do not understand their directions to society what chance the rest of us?

captcah SaSS

achrn  
#589 Posted : 29 September 2020 14:14:02(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: Roundtuit Go to Quoted Post

This morning it was a radio interview where a cabinet minister could not explain the new rules closely followed by Bojo "miss-spoking" at a training centre.

No, no.  We've been told the rules are perfectly straightforward and simple.  People here have been saying the rules are straightforward.  You must have imagined one government minister after another getting it wrong.

Anyway, the rules don't apply to people in government, obv. (Or indeed parliament - I've been playing 'spot the social distancing breaches' on the live feed from Westminster, and actually at times they happen faster than I can hit print screen and give the picture a filename...)

biker1  
#590 Posted : 29 September 2020 15:55:53(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

There were two news items, one hot on the heels of the other. Firstly, the bars at Westminster were exempt from the 10pm closing time now inflicted on the nation. Then another item announcing that they would shut at 10pm after all. Amazing what a bit of publicity can achieve.

On the subject of the prescribed closing time, did anyone think this one through? We now have hordes of people turned out of pubs at the same time and congregating on the streets. Brilliant!

This government has focused on so many publicity gimmicks rather than sound policy, it's a wonder any of us know what we're supposed to do

chris42  
#591 Posted : 29 September 2020 16:40:30(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
chris42

I think I have missed something as I’m sure at the end of July the death total for the UK was over 44,000, however the news seems to be reporting the current total as just over 42,000. Did we suddenly find a few people we had lost?

From Google

13 Jul 2020 - UK coronavirus death toll increases by 11 to 44,830 - the lowest daily rise since mid-March 

But a search for current total gives 42,000 deaths.

Or have the Government come up with a new way of defining death?

Chris

Roundtuit  
#592 Posted : 29 September 2020 18:37:18(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Always watch for the small print - in this case deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive Coronavirus test.

thanks 2 users thanked Roundtuit for this useful post.
chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC), chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC)
Roundtuit  
#593 Posted : 29 September 2020 18:37:18(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

Always watch for the small print - in this case deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive Coronavirus test.

thanks 2 users thanked Roundtuit for this useful post.
chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC), chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC)
John Murray  
#594 Posted : 29 September 2020 21:16:45(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
John Murray

"The new methodology for counting deaths means the total number of people in the UK who have died from Covid-19 comes down from 46,706 to 41,329 - a reduction of 12%"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53722711

So; if you die 28 days + 1 second, and were previously tested positive for the Sars-CoV-2virus, you didn't die of covid 19.... #sorted

thanks 1 user thanked John Murray for this useful post.
chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC)
biker1  
#595 Posted : 30 September 2020 07:49:03(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

A fine way of massaging the figures to try and make the situation seem a bit better. What about those who have died because of other causes, but did so because they couldn't get treatment for them due to the focus on COVID? Surely that is arguably COVID related, but then that would make the figures look really bad, wouldn't it?

And if you have to die within 28 days, what about those who are in hospital for weeks before they recover or die? A pathetic PR stunt on the part of the government, who are renowned for such things.

thanks 1 user thanked biker1 for this useful post.
chris42 on 01/10/2020(UTC)
Holliday42333  
#596 Posted : 30 September 2020 09:52:54(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Holliday42333

Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post

And if you have to die within 28 days, what about those who are in hospital for weeks before they recover or die? A pathetic PR stunt on the part of the government, who are renowned for such things.

Now I certainly strugle to defend the Government on any aspect of their handling of the pandemic, but this isn't really accurate in my view.  I seem to remember that at the time the Government were under massive pressure to redefine the recording of fatalities from all parts, including in PMQ's from the opposition.  The belief being England were over reporting compared to many/all other contries.  There were some that believed that the current definition was still too broad.

thanks 1 user thanked Holliday42333 for this useful post.
CptBeaky on 01/10/2020(UTC)
chris42  
#597 Posted : 01 October 2020 11:22:08(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
chris42

Originally Posted by: Roundtuit Go to Quoted Post

Always watch for the small print - in this case deaths recorded within 28 days of a positive Coronavirus test.

I thought that adjustment happened before we got to the 44k level, perhaps not then. Thought Gov had put the counting contract out to ATOS ( the people who decided if your disability allowed you to work or not -even terminaly ill and in one instance someone dead). As long as we don't have a few thousand zombies wandering around then.

Chris

biker1  
#598 Posted : 01 October 2020 15:47:10(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
biker1

ATOS?! Were they given targets to reduce the numbers then, as they were for those qualifying for benefits, allegedly?

chris42  
#599 Posted : 01 October 2020 16:00:36(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
chris42

Sorry to imply they are actually counting; I was joking about ATOS for the very reason you mention. Allegedly as you say, even though I know someone whose first question of the assessment was -How did you get here? ( for your compulsory assessment, because we are nowhere near a bus route, and there is no parking outside and we are on floor 2) Allegedly!

Chris

John Murray  
#600 Posted : 01 October 2020 16:20:14(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
John Murray

Originally Posted by: Holliday42333 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post

And if you have to die within 28 days, what about those who are in hospital for weeks before they recover or die? A pathetic PR stunt on the part of the government, who are renowned for such things.

Now I certainly strugle to defend the Government on any aspect of their handling of the pandemic, but this isn't really accurate in my view.  I seem to remember that at the time the Government were under massive pressure to redefine the recording of fatalities from all parts, including in PMQ's from the opposition.  The belief being England were over reporting compared to many/all other contries.  There were some that believed that the current definition was still too broad.

From the Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK Gov page:

"Number of deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. The actual cause of death may not be COVID-19 in all cases. People who died from COVID-19 but had not tested positive *are not included* and people who *died from COVID-19 more than 28 days after their first positive test* are not included"

achrn  
#601 Posted : 02 October 2020 07:22:25(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
achrn

Originally Posted by: John Murray Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Holliday42333 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: biker1 Go to Quoted Post

And if you have to die within 28 days, what about those who are in hospital for weeks before they recover or die? A pathetic PR stunt on the part of the government, who are renowned for such things.

Now I certainly strugle to defend the Government on any aspect of their handling of the pandemic, but this isn't really accurate in my view. 

From the Coronavirus (Covid-19) in the UK Gov page:

I don't think there's any dispute about what the derivation of the statistics is.  I think the dispute is whether this constitutes "a pathetic PR stunt".

You need a basis for defining the statistic, and this one doesn't look any worse than any other to me.  What do those that consider it a dumb definition propose to use instead?  Anyone who dies shall be assumed to have died from coronavirus unless proven otherwise? If you want to include people who have died without testing then that's pretty much what it boils down to.  (I note it seems that about ten times as many people think they have had coronavirus than that any testing can find - every other person I speak to seems to assure me they had some sniffles back in somewhen and they reckon that was it). Assuming that everyone that dies after having had coronavirus died from it doesn't make much sense either - that makes it a 100% fatality rate disease that no-one has ever recovered from (they just haven't died yet).

Kate  
#602 Posted : 02 October 2020 08:03:19(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Kate

I agree there is nothing wrong with this way of measuring the deaths.  Any measure just has to be clear about what is and isn't included, and this is perfectly clear.  All measures have their limitations and there is no perfect one.  Depending on why you need to know the figure, and when you need to know it by, different measures will be suitable. Epidemiologists, policy-makers and historians will all find different measures more informative for their differing purposes.

The best measure of how many deaths have been caused overall will be the excess mortality figure that counts deaths from any cause and compares it with the average for the time of year.  This accounts for those who have died either directly or indirectly because of the disease, and also lives saved by changes that are caused by the pandemic but reduce deaths from other causes, for example, if flu transmission is reduced by hygiene, distancing and increased vaccination.  This figure is also published so if that's what you want to know, that's what you should look at.

chris.packham  
#603 Posted : 02 October 2020 09:08:07(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
chris.packham

To me it seems that any such statistics will only be a rough estimate. Consider the following hypothetical situation. I test positive to COVID-19 but suffer only a slight illness from which I recover quickly. Two weeks later I develop influenza leading to pneumonia from which I die within the 28 day period. Which was the cause of death - COVID-19, influenza or pneumonia. or a combination of two or more of them?  As Disraeli is supposed to have stated: "There are lies, d****d lies, and statistics". I once had a book called 'How to lie with statistics' which resulted in my viewing any statistics with considerable caution.

Comparing the number of fatalities from disease this year with last year's doesn't necessarily give us a realistic statistic unless we can eliminate the possibility of an increase number of deaths this year from other causes compared with last year distorting our results.

thanks 1 user thanked chris.packham for this useful post.
CptBeaky on 02/10/2020(UTC)
Users browsing this topic
18 Pages«<1314151617>»
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.