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#1 Posted : 19 January 2004 12:24:00(UTC)
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Posted By keith molyneux has anyone got a copy of domino theory which I could use. Thanks. Stuart Yates
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#2 Posted : 19 January 2004 12:52:00(UTC)
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Posted By Dave Dowan Hi Stuart This what i have Heinrich's model suggests that a preventable injury is the natural culmination of a series of events or circumstances, which occur, in a fixed logical order. Consider a row of dominoes placed in a row: when one falls it will cause the next to fall and so on. If one of the dominoes is removed then the chain of events will be halted. In the same way, if Heinrich's accident sequence is interrupted by elimination of one of the factors, which comprise it, then injury cannot occur and the accident will have been prevented. Probably the easiest factor to eliminate is the unsafe act and/or mechanical or physical hazard (i.e. unsafe condition) Regarsd Dave
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#3 Posted : 19 January 2004 13:10:00(UTC)
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Posted By Brian Smith I've got a few pages from my NEBOSH Part 1- includes Heinrich's Single Cause Domino Theory + diagrams. Let me know if you want a copy and I'll post them on. Regards Brian Smith
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#4 Posted : 19 January 2004 17:26:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman Keith, there are a number of "domino theories". That of heinrich dates from 1931, Weaver's from 1971, Adams from 1976, as does that of Bird and Loftus. Jim Reason's "resident pathogens" model, not strictly "domino" but allowing for similar five step causality process split into two rows - "systemic pathogens" and "human pathogens" was developed after his work on the chernobyl disaster and published in 1993 is about the best causality model that I know of. Under "Systemic pathogens" he lists : High level decision making Line management implementation Pre-conditions - people technology and equipment Synchronised production activities Defences and protective mesures Failures in this row result in "Loss" Under Human Pathogens he lists : Fallible decisions Line management deficiencies Preconditions for unsafe acts Unsafe acts Failed or absent defences Failures in this row result in "Accidents" I can give you the article reference if you need it.
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#5 Posted : 19 January 2004 17:27:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman Or is your name Stuart Yates ?
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#6 Posted : 20 January 2004 14:06:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins I prefer Reason's Swiss Cheese model (1990) because it illustrates that for an accident to happen, multiple layers of defences must be breached at the same time. It simply isn't true that failure at a higher level (as in the Domino Theory) will automatically topple the remining defences because there are usually additional safeguards at those levels that will prevent it. Alan
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#7 Posted : 20 January 2004 17:39:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman Domino theories say that high level errors can cause accidents unless lower levels can compensate. As in - "I dont care how much it'll cost you. I aint going in there" Here, the fourth domino "human behaviour" compensates for first second and third level failures.
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#8 Posted : 22 January 2004 11:20:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins Agreed Merv, but what I was getting at is that each level is much more fluid than the Domino theories appear to suggest. Whilst taking out one domino breaks the chain reaction, at each level there are likely to be many safeguards and this is illustrated better by Swiss Cheese... Alan
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#9 Posted : 22 January 2004 17:57:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman Alan, I completely agree with you, but the first question was about the domino theory. Perhaps you could summarise jim's swiss cheese proposition in a dozen or so words for the edification of all of our corespondants, especially he who posed the question ? Merv Newman
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#10 Posted : 23 January 2004 08:51:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins ...a dozen or so words? Great! You know what they say about a picture? Well if only we could... Imagine: instead of dominoes, a series of slices of swiss cheese, with all the holes randomly distributed. OK? But these holes are not static like in real cheese - they constantly move around on each of the slices. Imagine also we are shining a light at the rearmost slice but it cannot be seen when looking at the foremost slice because generally there will be other "cheese" blocking it. Right: well each slice is a layer of defences (just like the dominoes) and ideally there should be no holes in those defences. However, we all know that our defences break down on occasion so holes appear in them. Some defences may be removed deliberately such as when maintenance is undertaken or may result from errors or violations, active failures and latent conditions at any of the levels (slices). It is only when a series of holes line up is the beam allowed to shine all the way through and it is then that an accident occurs. I think it's a very good illustration of real world activity. Sorry to have strayed from the original question though Kieth. Alan
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#11 Posted : 23 January 2004 10:23:00(UTC)
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Posted By keith molyneux Could you send them to my colleague who is completing his N.V.Q EITHER electronically via e mail address Stuart.Yates@knaufinsulation.com or Knauf Insulation Stafford Rd St Helens Merseyside wa10 3ns Thanks
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#12 Posted : 23 January 2004 10:44:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins Keith, I've e-mailed copies of my PowerPoint slides to Stuart, plus a bit more text. Alan
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#13 Posted : 19 February 2004 03:09:00(UTC)
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Posted By john o'meara The earlier descriptions of Reason's Swiss cheese model are helpful. A picture certainly does make it easier. Not hard to loocate. I wonder if there's a couple of things the model does not include that ought to be included. First, I think there are times when the "beam" or "arrow" when it penetrates a slice, locks that slice into a fixed position. So, once it's past that layer of defence it stays past it. It can then wait till it gets the chance to penetrate the next layer, and then lock that layer into place. Reason's model suggests the holes in the layers appear and disappear and when a series of holes all appear simultaneously and aligned, the "beam" penetrates completely and causes harm. I'm thinking that there can be an interaction between the holes and the "beam", that the beam penetrates one hole at a time and holds the hole in place. Second, if the beam is a strong energy force, then there are times when it actively seeks the holes. So, if a hole appears, you are guaranteed that the force will find it, given time. So it isn't like a beam or arrow that travels in a straight line. It goes looking for the holes. J.
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#14 Posted : 19 February 2004 11:42:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins Hi John, I agree with some of what you say, but is it not also the case that as and when (and if) we discover holes in the layers they are then repaired? So whilst agreeing that some holes may be locked by the beam, not all of them will be locked permanently. Alan
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#15 Posted : 20 February 2004 07:30:00(UTC)
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Posted By john o'meara Hi Alan, > is it not also the case that as and when >(and if) we discover holes in the layers >they are then repaired? Yes, but "if" is the key word, isn't it? >So whilst agreeing that some holes may be >locked by the beam, not all of them will be >locked permanently. Sure, not all of them will be "locked in" and I'm not sure I'm expressing that in the best way. I need to come up with an example. The analogy might be wrong. Imagine a large tank of nasty chemical. A seal on a valve or a piping joint loosens. The chemical finds this hole in the defence (containment) and leaks out. It's now past the defence. You can tighten up the seal or joint, but the danger's out. Maybe the actual leakage went unnoticed. Say the liquid pooled in a sump in a manhole in the floor. It might sit there happily waiting the next defence hole to appear. That might be someone entering the manhole without doing the prescribed atmosphere tests. So, what I'm suggesting is that the holes don't need to be aligned at the same time. The hazard might be an patient opportunist and get through the holes one by one, rather than all at once. Makes me think that if failed or failing equipment is spotted, then perhaps there are instances where a broad examination ought be mandatory to see if any hazard has "escaped". If a zookeeper found the tiger cage door open one morning, would she close it and not do a stocktake of tigers? J.
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#16 Posted : 24 February 2004 10:16:00(UTC)
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Posted By Alan Hoskins You make a very good point john and I would not disagree with you. I suppose I was looking at it on a more basic level such as for example, a trip incident. There would generally need to be a combination of some damage to a floor or a trailing lead, perhaps (unsafe condition) with some person not taking sufficient care or paying attention - rushing, carrying items, etc. (unsafe act) for an accident to occur. The chances are though, that before this happened the damage (hopefully) would be noticed and remedied, thus eliminating the hazard, so the hole has healed up again in that layer. Alan
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#17 Posted : 25 February 2004 10:50:00(UTC)
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Posted By john o'meara Here's a terrific real-life case of the dominoe theory in action. This was a fire on a ship arising from an electrical short. That doesn't sound unusual, but the fire was not an "electrical fire" and occurred well away from the electrical fault. First there were two latent failures - 1. an undersized clamp had been installed on a mains cable coming from a diesel driven generator 2. the circuit breaker on this particular circuit had been set too high Those factors remained in place for some time. Then the following occurred:- . over time the undersized clamp compressed and deformed the plastic insulation of the inner cores of the cable, breaking down their insulation properties . the insulation failed . current leaked from phase to phase and from phase to earth . the overcurrent did not trip the circuit breaker as it was set too high . the generator reacted to the overcurrent by locking, ie, the fastly spinning rotor seized . the locked rotor imposed a severe breaking effect on the drive shaft from the diesel engine . one of the engine's connecting rods broke . the rod smashed a hole in the engine's sump . hot oil exited the sump . the oil self ignited . the fire was under the plastic fuel filter . the fuel filter melted . flow of diesel added to the fire . the heat from the fire penetrated an adjacent steel bulkhead . on the other side of the bulkhead was a storeroom . cardboard boxes of fuel filters ignited So, from an undersized cable clamp to a fire in a storeroom. Falling dominoes. Also illustrates Reason's idea of latent failures, ie, the badly set circuit breaker. J.
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#18 Posted : 25 February 2004 11:34:00(UTC)
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Posted By Simon Micklewright Brian, please could you send me the information you have on Heinrich's Single Cause Domino theory. Much appreciated, thank you Simon
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