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Posted By Jasonjg
I know I have already posted in the study forum but thought I may strike lucky with you working folks.
Hi
I am just covering part of my course, which covers Risk Analysis.
After looking at the formulas for probability, which is easy enough to digest, I have moved on to frequency.
Frequency being much the same as probability apart from the fact I should be able to take into account time intervals and numbers of people at risk.
I would very much appreciate some examples Risk assessments or analysis forms showing the above being taken into consideration.
High medium and low are not needed as I can grasp that method easily enough. I would rather look at some numerical figures that some people have devised to cover more comlicated risks.
Much appreciated
Jason (stress head)
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Posted By Andy Petrie
Frequency or likelihood is generally based on time, so one event per year is a frequency. (frequency is generally used for more frequent events, where likelihood is for less frequent events)
Probability relies on another event happening, the probability then affects the outcome.
Here are a few examples.
The frequency of broken rails on a railway line is ten per year; the probability of a derailment following a broken rail is 20%. We would therefore expect 2 derailments a year from broken rails.
The likelihood of a fire in a house is once every hundred years; there is a 50% probability that the occupant would die as a result of the fire. Therefore we would expect a fatality from fire every 200 years.
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Posted By Merv Newman
Please get your terms right. Probability is expressed on a scale of 0 to 1 where 0 = zero probability of the event happening and 1 = absolute certainty that it will or has.
Throw a dice and the probability of rolling a six is 0.1666.
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Posted By Andy Petrie
Merv,
stop being pedantic, 50% is the same as 0.5 probability.
We use % to descride things as it is much easier and avoids confusion. It's much easier to say half a percent than 0.005
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Posted By Robert K Lewis
Merv
No absolute certainties in this world - not even with a probability of 1. Fuzzy logic he say that everything happens or doesn't happen at the same time. It happens to a degree and in some cases it occurs to the degree 0%.
The usual example is that if I take a car park with 100 spaces and they are all empty the probability for using any one is 0.01, fuzzy logic says my wife will park in one 95%, one 3% and one 2% all the rest 0%.
Its a bit like the single quark that passes through the slot and interferes with itself going through the adjacent slot of a 2 slot grid.
Still it is Friday. So everybody is right and wrong at the same time.
Bob
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Posted By Jasonjg
Thanks folks,
I am enlightened a little bit further???????????? lol.
Would be nice to see some paper based representation of this method though.
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Posted By Merv Newman
Just take a piece of paper and draw a diagram of Robert's wife parking sideways across three parking spaces. The probability that the next time she parks her car she will cover only one parking space is 0.95. Should Robert attempt to discuss this with her before the event, the probability that he will be sleeping on the sofa is 1.0
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