Posted By Philip McAleenan
John M
Why do you feel the need to shout “YOU” as if you feel that I alone hold opinions about how small the risk is?
Your first paragraph, which is not your statement but is, in its entirety, a quote from the American Heart Association, is a call to authority to back your assertions. But such calls to authority have limited, if any validity, especially in the case where the authority is being disingenuous, as the AHA is in this statement, in which case your argument is seriously undermined.
Appreciating the research that you have done to find this statement it would have been a few minutes extra work to obtain a copy of the report referred to and to see exactly what the study found and to post those findings here, rather than someone else’s interpretation.
Let me quote from that report now:
“One hundred fifty-two [out of a cohort of 32,046] incident cases of CHD (including 127 nonfatal MI and 25 CHD deaths) occurred during 10 years of follow-up. The age-adjusted relative risk of total incident CHD was 1.97(95% CI, 1.20 to 3.24)”.
Now a relative risk of 1.97 is statistically insignificant and the authors of the report admit this when that compared their results with another, Chinese, report;
“Our finding of an increased risk of passive smoking at work is consistent with the results of a case-control study of Chinese women in full-time paid employment, which found an elevated though statistically nonsignificant risk of MI for passive smoking at work (adjusted RR, 1.85; 95% CI, 0.86 to 4.00).”
The authors further state that there may well be a number of confounding factors that would explain the increase in risk through they made every effort to be thorough in making adjustments for a number of factors that would account for the increased risk. However they did state that a limitation to their study was their reliance on self-reported assessments of exposure to passive smoking. The report stated that “[t]he effect of this type of measurement error is usually conservative; that is, it pushes the relative risk estimates in the direction of the null. When passive smoking has been assessed by questionnaire, self-reported duration has been found to be much less reliable than dichotomous responses (yes/no) to questions about exposure at home or work”
Though the authors accept that there appears to be a small, but statistically insignificant increase in risk of CHD for passive smokers, the report is not definitive, and certainly does not warrant the misleading claims of campaigning organisers or individuals who have an agenda that blinds them to objectivity. And certainly anecdotal evidence of a personal nature is not the basis on which to exercise professional judgement. It is tantamount to banning the crossing of roads because a car knocked you down once.
The report can be found here,
http://circ.ahajournals..../content/full/95/10/2374 Regards, Philip