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#1 Posted : 03 November 2006 15:30:00(UTC)
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Posted By Andy Walker Good afternoon all. Though this is not strictly a H&S Issue, as many of us are now found to encompass environmental issues as part of our remit I thought you may find this of interest. A view from the other side so as to speak. The economics and politics of climate change Nigel Lawson. Follow the link and click to view the 1st November 2006 lecture. http://www.cps.org.uk/latestlectures/ I'm not saying I agree or disagree but it certainly puts a different slant on things. Discuss Andy W
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#2 Posted : 03 November 2006 16:00:00(UTC)
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Posted By J Knight It's just a re-hash of the head in sand doubter's case. Specifically, Hadley may or may not state that there has been no increase in global temperatures since 1998, but many other sources do. Secondly, the 'hockey-stick' was 'soundly discredited' by a panel of US Senators, it has since been stoutly defended and is not to be regarded as sunk without trace; as far as I know the methodology behind it and its findings still stands. Also, Mr Lawson, for all his education and keen intellect, is an economist, and by and large economists simply do not understand the natural world and its workings; if you doubt this dig out the thread on the BBC web-site about the day the worlds economies went into resource debt to the planet this year and see what the economist has to say about it; it's very, very frightening. Yes, we have had extreme weather in the past, and yes the climate always changes; but this is global extreme weather, and things seem to be changing very fast. while we were having frost fairs it was unusually warm in the Pacific, overall there was a balance; now there doesn't seem to be. Then there's the issue that Mr Lawson et al always fail to address. The night side of the Earth is about 93M miles from the sun, and has a mean temperature of about 285K, the dark side of the moon is also 93M miles from the Sun and has a mean temperature of about -271K; what's the difference? It's the atmosphere, stoopid. There is no doubt that the atmosphere is the biggest moderator of planetary surface temperatures (I could go on about Venus with its 600K temperatures, but I won't), and all the evidence is that changing the composition of the atmosphere will alter the way it reacts to heat. There is no evidence that changing the constitution of the atmosphere will not modify the way it responds to heat. So, is anthropogenic global warming happening? D****d if I know for sure. But most meteorologists (and Mr Lawson is again being disingenuous by portraying the existence of a a very small minority as being in any way a sign of a real difference in the balance of scientific opinion) and atmospheric physicists seem to think so, and for now I'll just wait and see. Of course, I hope they are wrong, John
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#3 Posted : 03 November 2006 16:02:00(UTC)
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Posted By J Knight PS, I meant 2K when I was talking about the Moon, of course, you can't have -K, Ooops, carried away by my own rhetoric there, John
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#4 Posted : 03 November 2006 16:16:00(UTC)
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Posted By mark limon my purely unscientifically based opinion is given that the United States and all the very fast developing economies are not going to do anything about it,why worry. Its just another excuse for the Labour party to tax us even more.
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#5 Posted : 03 November 2006 16:26:00(UTC)
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Posted By Jonathan Breeze ...Which funnily enough seems to be a summary of Mr Lawsons opinion. I could comment, but I fear I may breach AUG's! He did however use the following interesting quote: "In order to manage risk you must scare people." To which I would add: "...by informing them of the potential consequences of their actions."
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#6 Posted : 03 November 2006 16:51:00(UTC)
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Posted By mark limon I could comment, but I fear I may breach AUG's! Jonathon I remember some person in the past saying something like "publish and be dammned" some duke or other I think. We have the right to express our opinions freely(ish)dont give up yours, :-)
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#7 Posted : 03 November 2006 17:07:00(UTC)
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Posted By Rob T Funnily enough there are MORE studies which show there is no evidence to suggest global warming is anything more than a myth - it's just not trendy at the moment to disagree with people who don't try to find the facts out for themselves. It was only in the seventies that we were told of coming damnation due to global freezing - some of you should remember that (the Coming ice age!)! Oh how gullible some people are! As I've said before don't just read the Grauniad and listen to politicians politicking (that's what they do!) - go and reasearch but with AN OPEN MIND!
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#8 Posted : 03 November 2006 17:12:00(UTC)
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Posted By mark limon Ive 2 words to say "millenium bug"
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#9 Posted : 03 November 2006 17:16:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman I'm not totally convinced on the uniquely anthropogenic causes of global warming. There will be some contribution there but the present level of solar activity is also historically high. Some scientists say that solar activity for the last 60 to 70 years may be at its highest level in 8,000 years Others suggest that other comparably high levels of activity have occurred several times in the last few thousand years There is also the suggestion of a 92% probability that solar activity will decrease over the next 50 years. So I'm not panicking. But I'm still picking raspberries and strawberries out in the garden. As for HSE concerns, we can expect emission limits to get even tighter as time goes on. Warn your managers and plan for it. Merv
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#10 Posted : 06 November 2006 10:20:00(UTC)
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Posted By J Knight Rob, you don't read the Grauniad, I know, but your opinions do seem to come straight from a daily mail perspective, with just a hint of a famous radio presenter who I won't name. Please cite these 'studies' which dispute Global Warming. I have been abreast of this issue since it first reared its ugly head in 1980, and I do agree that the media scare-mongers and exaggerates; some would say that that's its job. However, so far I haven't come across any good science which has really dented the facts; the world is warmer now than it was 25 years ago, and its getting warmer faster. There's a lot of science that disputes this, but by and large its not good science. For example, one of the main 'studies' which disputed the consensus rested on the fact that satellite records from the 1970s to date didn't support surface temperature records; since satellites have a wider global coverage, especially of the oceans, this has been used to dispute the idea that the planet is getting warmer. However, a couple of years ago careful work demonstrated that the fault lay in the satellites, or more accurately in the calibration of their results; once corrected the records match terrestrial records, and warming is revealed. This hasn't been significantly disputed by anybody. Now, I have had doubts about all this from the beginning, mainly because its a huge claim and needs to be treated sceptically. I continue to hace doubts, as doubts are needed for any scientific understanding, especially of such a very comlpex issue. But it seems that every attempt to demolish the theories behind climate change has so far been fairly easily overturned, while the central observable tenets of the message have so far not been successfully challenged. And this I think is important; evolutionary theory is similarly difficult, often uncomfortable, and still disputed; but just about every advance in biology adds another brick to Darwin's theory, and knocks another hole in the edifices built by doubters. The same thing seems to be happening with climate change. So, in short, keeping an open mind is advisable, I agree, but it doesn't mean accepting any and every faintly reactionary opposing view in all cases, and just stating something in capital letters isn't always helpful, John
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#11 Posted : 06 November 2006 10:21:00(UTC)
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Posted By J Knight Oh, and Mark, I never believed the millennium bug hype; there was and is a great deal of difference, John
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#12 Posted : 06 November 2006 10:39:00(UTC)
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Posted By Descarte FYI we are at "solar minimum" at the moment, the period when solar activity is relativly low, however there is more than one solar cycle. Solar cycles are known to cause shifts in climate change ranging in scales of every 11 years to 150,000 years. Would be interested to see your source as I am somewhat involved in this subject I think there are 4 average and extreme opinions on global warming It is happening, Im building my new house on stilts It is happening but not going to affect me in my, my childrens etc lifetime It is not happening, its just another scare mongering tactic by the government, air and sea temperatures change all the time It is not happening, its all a bunch of tree hugging hippy crap Im in the second one, climate change has happened in the past and scientists are unsure of the transition between colder and warmer periods, though transition is occuring quite rapidly now, we do not understand all the factors involved be them anthropogenic or natural. Should we do nothing, no, should we take a measured and effective response coupled with common sense, yes. Is this going to cost a lot of money, Yes. How do we convince people we need to spend this money, scare the hell out of em.
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#13 Posted : 06 November 2006 11:04:00(UTC)
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Posted By AHS Nigel Did another interesting speech a few years back claiming poverty and crime were not connected.
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#14 Posted : 06 November 2006 11:39:00(UTC)
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Posted By Tabs Are we not missing a trick here? Regardless of whether global warming is happening, and is or is not attributable to emissions, would it not be good for all of us to reduce the use of fuels and improve our efficiencies? Using less fuel should cost us less long term, should mean the sources remain viable for longer, and should mean a cleaner atmosphere for us to breathe. I think it is naiive to assume that this government is only adding more taxes because of the green issue. They would find a way to raise taxes regardless ... so even if all the scientists announced it was all a hoax, we could still expect more taxation (taxes and death, eh?). Global warming is like having the parents visit. You have to tidy your house, you have to clean the cat, the kids, the carpet ... and if they don't show, at least everything is in order (for a few days).
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#15 Posted : 06 November 2006 12:01:00(UTC)
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Posted By mark limon Tree huggers and doomsday sayers should share themselves equally between the USA and China because until they do something,our small contribution will make absolutely no difference at all.That is scientific fact.(if it isnt Im sure someone will be feverishly hitting the keyboards to tell me different) Tabs,your reasoning on saving resources is spot on. This goverments answer to everything is more and more taxes,I wont believe TB and co until I see an iceberg making its way down the Tees valley . Its a lovely day outside sun shining,pleasently warm for November,hmmm
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#16 Posted : 06 November 2006 12:23:00(UTC)
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Posted By Andy Walker I'm glad I made the posting as it sparked an interesting debate. As I stated I neither agree nor disagree with Mr Lawson, I'm keeping an open mind on the subject (until the water starts to lap around my ankles). Andy W
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#17 Posted : 06 November 2006 12:55:00(UTC)
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Posted By J Knight Mark, The tree-huggers and doomsayers are talking about China, and India, but it is a political fact that we have more influence with the US than we do with China. As to whether its worth 'us' doing our bit or not, well, as I say below and as has been said already in this thread, we might as well. TB and co have come very late to the debate about climate change; just because they have jumped on the bandwagon doesn't mean its heading in the wrong direction. Totally agree, there are many very good reasons to reduce energy consumption, not least because if we cut down a bit we will save money; that's us as individuals and us as the employers we work for. One of the interesting points raised by Rob T (I think) is that in the mid-1970s we were being warned about an imminent ice-age. The investigation into why that suddenly seemed to stop happening was, as I recall, one of the reasons behind the development of climate change theory. The other driver was investigations into why Venus is so hot. Venus is further from the Sun than Mercury, much further, yet its as hot or hotter. Why is this? Well, the reason seems to be the high levels of CO2 and H2S in its atmosphere. Me, I know what I know, and what I is this; spring is coming quicker and autumn is coming later, I see it every year. Birds which used to winter in England are now staying in the North of Scotland (Pink Footed-Geese, Anser brachyrynchous in case you want to know), birds which used to winter in Southern Europe are now wintering in Britain. Now this could be completely local stuff, but what I have heard (different from what I know) is that this is also happening in lots of other places. Now again, a Very Important Radio Personality takes advantage of his position to rubbish even any discussion about this; and I guess he's a celebrity who knows more about the discography of the Carpenters than I do, so he must be right. So I'm worried. Still buying a house in East Yorkshire at 0m above sea-level, so evidently not panicking yet, but worried, John
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