Welcome Guest! The IOSH forums are a free resource to both members and non-members. Login or register to use them

Postings made by forum users are personal opinions. IOSH is not responsible for the content or accuracy of any of the information contained in forum postings. Please carefully consider any advice you receive.

Notification

Icon
Error

Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
boblewis  
#1 Posted : 14 March 2020 11:51:32(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
boblewis

As I was listening to the experts continuing to talk about the phases of their plan. Contain is the first element and this is now failing. But is it only me that asks myself the question “Surely there has been a missed step ie to turn off the inflow of the disease into the country”. We have had a constant stream of uk residents returning from Italy who disperse across the country only to act if they spot some ill defined symptoms. Am I alone.
thanks 2 users thanked boblewis for this useful post.
Kim Hedges on 14/03/2020(UTC), nic168 on 16/03/2020(UTC)
peter gotch  
#2 Posted : 14 March 2020 12:09:36(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
peter gotch

Bob, I think the point is that short of a Fortress Britain policy that would have needed to be applied at least 3 months ago, it is now too late to do anything similar to what you suggest.

Hence, why Trump is being roundly criticised both in the US and abroad for his partial ban on letting in people flying from Europe.

boblewis  
#3 Posted : 14 March 2020 12:15:35(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
boblewis

Peter I agree with you but I am not a paid expert. One would perhaps have expected paid competent experts to see the need early on. After all if I have a leaking tank the first thing I do is shut off the inflow to mitigate the potential uncontrolled outflow volume

Just look at the numbers of uk citizens going to northern Italy on holiday and returning uncontrolled to the uk

Edited by user 14 March 2020 12:19:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Natasha.Graham  
#4 Posted : 14 March 2020 16:15:33(UTC)
Rank: Forum user
Natasha.Graham

Three months ago, even less was known about the disease and how is spreads than we know now, so measures were fairly standard. 

Also I'm not sure how the country could legally prevent its own citizens from flying back into the country! In fact Countries have been repatriating their citizens from abroad as quickly as possible. I know of cases of UK diplomats who have been bought to the UK from China whilst their family was refused entry because they aren't British.  Said diplomat is now in the UK and cannot return home to their partner and child.

I'm also sure that the number of actual cases is far higher than the official case count and that there are probably a large number of people walking around with mild symptoms and dismissing it as just a cold.

Still, there's no point in mulling over what should have been done, what we need to do now is focus on protecting the vulnerable in sociaety.

thanks 1 user thanked Natasha.Graham for this useful post.
CptBeaky on 16/03/2020(UTC)
JayPownall  
#5 Posted : 14 March 2020 17:31:56(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
JayPownall

One or two individuals could have introduced this into to UK months ago, prior to full knowledge of the viruses widespread transmission. Closing borders etc would be akin to the stable door and horse bolted statement. No real missed step in my eyes, as we'd have had to shutdown when the first host arrived - which we realistically wouldn't have known about.
boblewis  
#6 Posted : 14 March 2020 19:50:28(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
boblewis

Not close borders but rather isolate at time of entry not if symptoms appear. Symptoms surely indicate an active shedding of viral pearticles.
JayPownall  
#7 Posted : 14 March 2020 20:05:30(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
JayPownall

Originally Posted by: boblewis Go to Quoted Post
Not close borders but rather isolate at time of entry not if symptoms appear. Symptoms surely indicate an active shedding of viral pearticles.


The idea is sound, however the point still stands. You would need to have identified the first few C19 carriers that entered the UK to have made any real difference. Granted now, symptomatic or those returning from Cat 1 countries should be isolated - but doing such initially would have been nigh on impossible given as I say, there were likely C19 infected individuals within the UK long before the actual first confirmed case post the Wuhan outbreak. The damage in theory is already done. (Worth noting that there is evidence to suggest that the asymptomatic can still present a transmission risk, thus isolating the obviously ill and symptomatic wouldn't be a catch all).
Kim Hedges  
#8 Posted : 14 March 2020 22:00:23(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Kim Hedges

So here I am on Saturday (2 days later doing my CPD).

21 Dead in UK so far from Covid19.

1140 confirmed sick in UK.

World cases

155,845 confirmed cases

5,814 confirmed deaths

74,438 recovered

 

I listened intently to what the World Health Organisation had to say and was left feeling sick that our UK Government was doing it wrong.  The W.H.O. has the 8 Pillars approach to disease control, the UK has and continues to miss the first 4 pillars. 

So we continue to do nothing in the UK, no mass testing to identify covid19, so we can't tell if there are clusters, because of the data protection laws we have - we can't confirm where people come from, because the data is anonymized – it’s totally bonkers to me. On top of that, because we don't know who has it from testing, we can't disinfect the streets around the outbreaks nor the homes of anyone who suspects they may have covid19. The country travel bans don't achieve much, but cause further problems. UK forces could all have been called out to this civil emergency, to assist in the mass testing, isolation and disinfection protocols already well known by all people who have ever been involved with NBC drills (about 2 million ex-forces people by my reckoning).  As an ex-forces person and an IOSH member, I am surprised that IOSH have not made a statement (possibly through the PM’s office) that the UK Government should state that the UK is in a state of civil emergency! 

There was a brief late night report I saw that said China is now expecting a continuation of cases for maybe another year or until a vaccination can be obtained.  So don't assume, that in October it will all be over. 

Edited by user 14 March 2020 22:12:30(UTC)  | Reason: second page added

JayPownall  
#9 Posted : 15 March 2020 09:34:29(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
JayPownall

The virus will likely be around for a few years to come, that's basic virology - with vaccines years off as well. IOSH have produced some advice and guidance materials - why would they need to lobby No 10; I think the DoH, PHE, the CMO and CSA have enough expertise and knowledge to manage the situation. What you may find bonkers, makes perfect sense to those in the know. It would be utterly pointless now to start some of the measures you mention.
Roundtuit  
#10 Posted : 15 March 2020 22:45:07(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

In a global economy do we shut the doors every time someone sneezes, scratches, has a raised temperature, loss of appetite? The closest I am aware of to this kind of practice was conducted by the city of Venice back in the plague days where any arriving ship would "quarantina" (forty day wait) before berthing.

We travel (some would say unecessarily) further and faster so the concept we could stop any current or future health event would rely upon a system of isolation at every entry port AND for everyone regardless of their "minor" celebrity status - can you imagine Trump in isolation at Breize Norton for weeks before a UK state visit? It is not going to happen - power and money ignore fact.

Roundtuit  
#11 Posted : 15 March 2020 22:45:07(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
Roundtuit

In a global economy do we shut the doors every time someone sneezes, scratches, has a raised temperature, loss of appetite? The closest I am aware of to this kind of practice was conducted by the city of Venice back in the plague days where any arriving ship would "quarantina" (forty day wait) before berthing.

We travel (some would say unecessarily) further and faster so the concept we could stop any current or future health event would rely upon a system of isolation at every entry port AND for everyone regardless of their "minor" celebrity status - can you imagine Trump in isolation at Breize Norton for weeks before a UK state visit? It is not going to happen - power and money ignore fact.

A Kurdziel  
#12 Posted : 16 March 2020 09:18:37(UTC)
Rank: Super forum user
A Kurdziel

As we keep saying it is all down to risk assessment: you need to balance the harm that the hazard will cause ie the corvid 19 virus against the time effort and money required to apply the optimal controls. Remember, the virus in 90% of cases only creates a mild illness. The majority of people, will fully recover. We could simply have gone into lock down in December this would have protected us from the virus totally. It would also have screwed up the economy and left thousands of vulnerable people physically isolated and probably caused more deaths than the virus. A graduated response, is in reality, the only way forward. What the government is really concerned about is as the virus takes hold of in the community there will be a massive surge in cases and the health care system will simply not be able to cope. This would lead not only to more corona related deaths but also other death as resources are transferred to dealing with the outbreak eg RTA victims waiting even longer in A&E as there are not enough medical staff (it would be worse than it is now) The plan is therefore to slow down the increase in cases and keep them to a manageable level.

Not everybody is happy with the strategy but given what resources we have available it look like to only viable one.

   

thanks 3 users thanked A Kurdziel for this useful post.
Kate on 16/03/2020(UTC), CptBeaky on 16/03/2020(UTC), nic168 on 16/03/2020(UTC)
Users browsing this topic
Guest (2)
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.