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#1 Posted : 10 April 2007 10:38:00(UTC)
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Posted By Frank Macleod
Colleagues
I am hoping you can give your opinions on the following two "schools of thought" regarding risk ratings when carrying out a risk assessment for any given task.

(1) the severity rating for a risk assessment never changes regardless of the control measures put in place although the likelihood will fall dramatically based on the same control measures. (e.g. if the severity is 5 and the likelihood is 5, the control measures are implemented and the likelihood drops to say 2. The severity stays the same as if the control measures fail the severity outcome would remain the same).

(2) once the control measures are put in place, both the severity and likelihood drop down ( i.e. the severity 5 and the likelihood 5 both drop as the control measures prevent the severity of injury damage etc as well as the likelihood).

Your thoughts will be appreciated.

Many thanks in advance.

Regards
Frank
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#2 Posted : 10 April 2007 10:52:00(UTC)
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Posted By Chris Packham
In the following I am looking at risk assessment from the point of view of exposure to chemical hazards. However, I suggest that similar considerations would apply to any other hazard and risk.

It is important we do not confuse risk and hazard. The "severity" of your risk is the consequences, i.e. the "hazard". The "risk" is the likelihood that under the circumstances the damage will occur.

Therefore, in my book, the risk reflects both the hazard, the probability of exposure and the extent of the exposure. If we eliminate the probability of any exposure then we eliminate also the risk. If we adequately control the exposure, then we reduce the risk - and thus the risk rating.

Chris
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#3 Posted : 10 April 2007 11:20:00(UTC)
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Posted By holmezy

Frank,

continueing on from Chris,

severity can be reduced and should be a consideration. In a chemical environment using "chemical A" may be corrosive and therefore cause severe burns to the skin. However, if a control measure was to change to "chemical B" which may cause irritation, whilst still allowing the process to adequately function, then the severity has been decreased.

Think about hitting something with a small nail or pin with a 4lb lump hammer, yes you will drive the nail into the wood, but if you miss, you crush your fingers. If you substitute the lump hammer for a toffee hammer, you will still drive the nail, but if you miss, you recieve light bruising. Severity is decreased.

perhaps not the best examples, but think it shows what I'm getting at!!

holmezy
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#4 Posted : 10 April 2007 11:22:00(UTC)
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Posted By Andrew Meiklejohn
Hi Frank

IMO the hazard rating will never change regardless of control measures implemented. However the liklehood of said hazard occuring will reduce as effective control measures are imoplemented thereby reducing the risk.

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#5 Posted : 10 April 2007 11:30:00(UTC)
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Posted By Tabs
You should remain flexible...

Falling off a four storey building would normally be fatal. Erecting a barrier will reduce the likelihood but not the consequence, so severity remains "fatal" or "high" if they fall over the barrier. BUT, if you choose a different control, such as big airbags below the fall, the consequence should change from "fatal" to "survivable", maybe minor injury. So severity could change to "Low".

Electrical shock can be fatal. Controls such as lock-out isolation, will reduce the likelihood, but if the worker makes contact with the supply, the consequence will remain "possibly fatal". However, work on live high voltage is possible if the right precautions are in place (no 'potential differences') so consequence goes from "possibly fatal" to "none" ... (this is a highly skilled and specialist task which must never be attempted by anyone who has not been thoroughly trained in the very few instances that it can be achieved - I am NOT advocating working on live equipment).

So... you have to look at each case and decide for yourself, "Has the consequential severity changed or not?"

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#6 Posted : 10 April 2007 11:34:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman
If the original situation does not change then the probable severity or consequence cannot change. You rely on control measures to reduce the exposure to an injury of whatever the severity level is.

Changing the chemical for one less dangerous or using a smaller hammer are examples of control measures to reduce the severity level.

Keeping your other hand out of the trajectory of the hammer is a control measure designed to reduce the exposure to the injury (it is less likely to happen) But if you still use a club hammer then the probable severity of any injury remains the same.

Severity X Exposure = Risk

Control measures to reduce S and/or E will reduce R

Merv

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#7 Posted : 10 April 2007 11:47:00(UTC)
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Posted By Chris Packham
May I add one element to Merv's equation:

Severity x exposure x probability = risk

When doing a risk assessment we should always consider that situation which might arise should something go wrong. It is a bit late when that hose has ruptured and sprayed the worker with acid to start thinking about the risk. So with risk assessment we always need to be asking the "what if" question.

Chris
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#8 Posted : 10 April 2007 12:17:00(UTC)
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Posted By Merv Newman
Chris,

thanks. I was using a bit of short hand there.

By just saying exposure I was really talking about the frequency and probability of exposure. Mainly the frequency. (continual, once a day, once a week, occasional (whatever that means), infrequent etc)

Merv
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#9 Posted : 10 April 2007 12:19:00(UTC)
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Posted By Andrew Meiklejohn
Good point Tabs

but i would always initially consider the hazards/risks without any controls as I'm sure we all know how easlly some control measures can be circumvented or not used.

The residual risk will then be affected by control measures which will include training supervision inspection maintenance etc.

Also, shouldn't the risk assessment include the risk of the airbags not being inflated properly?

Andrew
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#10 Posted : 10 April 2007 13:41:00(UTC)
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Posted By Frank Macleod
Guy's

Thanks for the positive and intelligent feedback. Will put it all to good use.

Regards
Frank
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#11 Posted : 10 April 2007 13:55:00(UTC)
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Posted By Andy Brazier
I don't think anyone has said this yet. A common mistake is to only consider one risk ranking, usually for the worst case consequence. The reality is that there are multiple scenarios and the worst risk may be for a lesser consequence that has a higher likelihood. This is especially the case when comparing before and after risk control measures because the impact of the controls may be different for different consequences.

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#12 Posted : 10 April 2007 14:10:00(UTC)
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Posted By Sally
I would agree with Andy. The example I use on RA training courses is that of tripping over a cable. The likelyhood of this will vary according to various things eg how close will people be, is it visible, is it in a cable track etc but if the event does occur then the severity can actually be anything from a bruised ego to a fatality. There is a reasonable chance that someone will break a bone so calculate on that.

This is why I'm not a fan of complex numbering systems prefering to use a high, medium and low. I only use the grids to explain how we arrive at the high medium or low.
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