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#1 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:20:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw This came from a scientist talking about the 1969 moon landing: 'Leading spacecraft expert Professor Andre Balogh, from Imperial College London, argues that the level of commitment and risk required to get astronauts to the Moon and back in 1969 would simply not be possible today. He said: "It was carried out in a technically brilliant way with risks taken ... that would be inconceivable in the risk-averse world of today.' So are we risk averse to the detriment of progress?
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#2 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:28:00(UTC)
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Posted By David Gault No I don't think we are. If we were the current space programme would stop and the space station along with space walks etc. would come to an abrupt end. The risks are still there. NASA is even talking of going to Mars by 2020 - if that isn't risky what is? I think it is a good question though. There is probably a perception of everyone being risk averse due to the claims culture (arguable I know) that is also perceived to exist. Outside of the space projects there are still many risks being taken and necessarily so.
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#3 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:30:00(UTC)
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Posted By Ron Hunter Possible? Yes. Acceptable? Hmmm....it wasn't until Apollo 13 mission that we all became aware of just how risky the whole business of space exploration really is. Floating in a tin can (ack. David Bowie) susceptible to being punctured by high velocity dust particles and with computing power only a fraction of what we now have in a 'no frills' mobile phone, etc. Balance all of that against what is arguably one of mankind's greatest achievements. Mind you, the statistics of miles travelled v. major incidents must hold up pretty well?
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#4 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:47:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Good final point David. The land speed record shows no sign of being abondoned despite safety measures improving. Is it just astronauts and their bosses being namby-pamby or is it a governmental excuse as it costs so much to get off the planet? And Ron, I imagine that it is less safe every day up in space due to the amount of crud we have left there - current and defunct TV and weather satellites, probes, etc etc. Will there be a highway code for space travel?
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#5 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:51:00(UTC)
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Posted By Bob Y I had sort of pondered much the same thing myself and I don't think we are. From the outside it is understandable why many of us think that 'space travel' is routine as it has often appeared like that. But of course as well as Apollo 13 there where many previous accidents and incidents and there have been quite some more since, Challenger and Columbia are prime examples. While we do take a somewhat different view of risk nowadays I still think that the various manned space programmes including the occupation of the ISS must surely remain an inherently high risk undertaking.
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#6 Posted : 17 July 2009 12:57:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Bob do we then have to redefine risk in a modern society? I reckon that an accident involving a space craft could cause(say) 5 deaths, and happen once every ten or so years. More people than that probably die every day in Chinese mines. Or is it that the spacemen are more newsworthy?
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#7 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:12:00(UTC)
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Posted By Paul Leadbetter You don't remember Apollo 1 then, Ron; fire on the launch pad killed the three astronauts. Paul
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#8 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:15:00(UTC)
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Posted By Yossarian Fair point Martin. Perhaps it is the for want of a better word "propaganda quality" of such a high visibility failure that is the issue.
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#9 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:16:00(UTC)
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Posted By Yossarian Paul, I thought they were called Gemini then?
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#10 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:17:00(UTC)
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Posted By Bob Y Martin - I am not sure what in my post above prompted your response. I said that I didn't think that we are risk averse to the detriment of progress. And while I said that, I also said that I thought that 'space travel' is inherently high risk, which I still believe it is, along with many other 'undertakings' - perhaps including mining in China. I don't think that means I want to redefine risk in a modern society. In saying that, I think risk is being constantly 'redefined' or at least the acceptability of risk is constantly being challenged or tested.
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#11 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:19:00(UTC)
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Posted By Yossarian Quick trawl of Wikipedia & I stand corrected: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_1 Still, my excuse is I wasn't born until '72.
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#12 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:21:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Bob sorry if I sounded stroppy - I really did not mean to. I was just playing devil's advocate. I find that my writing style is a little more confrontational than I thought. If only tone of voice was available in these posts! Again, I was not questioning your views or criticising in any way, and apologies if you thought that I was. Martin
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#13 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:45:00(UTC)
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Posted By Bob Y No problem Martin, and in fairness I agree that the deaths of astronauts are more newsworthy than the deaths of Chinese miners. I am sure that the conditions in Chinese mines are probably pretty atrocious and the risks are high, as they are in may other industries that don't have the same incidence of accidents and fatalities. I would say that the reason for this is that not only are the risks high but that the risk controls are poor.
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#14 Posted : 17 July 2009 13:53:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Only reason I mentioned those miners is that I saw the following article nestled away in the Need to Know section of SHP online. Good bit of research given the limitations on regional accident reporting. Bit of an eye-opener too. Our work related injury stats are a walk in the park compared to some of these numbers. http://www.britsafe.org/...%20report%20211108v6.pdf
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#15 Posted : 17 July 2009 15:07:00(UTC)
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Posted By Jay Joshi The US Apollo programme was primarily to demonstrate the US supremacy in the space race versus the Soviet Union during the height of the cold ware era- which was the primary motivation and all resources required to achieve this aim were made available. Obviously, the safety aspects are vital, but with the quantities of explosive fuel and dependency on hundreds of safety critical systems, human space flight will always be "high risk". The Space Shuttle programme, that has had the highest number of fatalities, from an safety engineering perspective was a "political fix" rather than looking objectively at safety. I have form reliable sources that there was no need to have the main booster rocket in sections that would require "seals"--and there was a seal failure in the shuttle NNNNNNN. For the booster to be fabricated as a single piece, it would have to be manufactured in close proximity of the launch centre in Florida, but the booster contract was given to a contractor in Utah, and there was no practical method of transporting the booster except in sections--thus requiring seals when the sections are assembled! Also, there was a commercial pressure to maximise the shuttle flights prior to the Challenger disaster and concerns of the safety team were ignored http://history.nasa.gov/rogersrep/51lcover.htm
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#16 Posted : 17 July 2009 15:29:00(UTC)
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Posted By Raymond Rapp Martin I suppose it shows that health and safety is not timeless and is in part influenced by cultural differences. Different parts of the world have different cultures and we in the West judge them by our standards. Ray
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#17 Posted : 17 July 2009 15:57:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw I take your point Raymond but should not cultural differences take a back seat where life risk is present in a work situation? I am reminded of another quote which almost sums up the opposing position to ours: 'I did not go to his funeral, but I wrote a nice letter saying I approved.' -Mark Twain which almost seems to be the case in other parts of the world. Strangely, we have some of the lowest work related fatality stats in the world and we are allowed to talk about it openly. In some places where the work related fatality numbers are huge, such discussion is not always allowed. With that in mind I do not make an excuse for making judgements, based on cultural bias or otherwise.
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#18 Posted : 17 July 2009 16:11:00(UTC)
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Posted By Pete48 I am always a little worried when someone links history to today in order to justify a contemporary view. One wonders for example whether the future will see similar questions about the accelerator thingamajig and black hole technology stuff. There is a case that risk decisions are taken with only the benefit of contemporary knowledge and understanding. I think society allows similar risk taking for such developmental and research work as it did back then. Costs may be a magnitude different but that is not simply about risk aversion; it is about improved understanding and use of different materials etc. The price of a mobile phone size of computer versus those that would support a mission today?
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#19 Posted : 17 July 2009 16:25:00(UTC)
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Posted By Jay Joshi It is not primarily the cultural aspect, but the time scale within which these emerging economies are undergoing the "industrial revolution" and a form of republic/central government that occurred over 200 years in the developed world. Add to this the diversity and the population of the people living, for example in India. I tend to compare the diversity of the groups of people in India with Europe--it has taken hundreds of years to get to a stage where there is a semblance of peace amongst the European nations! Obviously, there should be accelerated improvements in the standards of health and safety. In India, those who are in the "organised sector" are sometimes overprotected, but the "unorganised sector" leaves a lot to be desired in context of welfare conditions and health and safety.
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#20 Posted : 17 July 2009 23:33:00(UTC)
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Posted By Ron Hunter Paul, I wouldn't necessarily discriminate between the Apollo 1 tragedy (and lest we forget, the Russians lost Colonel Komarov later that same year in the Soyuz 1 crash) and the many other lives lost in advancing powered flight in general. The Apollo 1 Saturn Rocket wasn't even fuelled. The Astronauts died in a terrible fire, but there was no rocket fuel in the main stages. The big boogey-man for NASA has always been the risk of losing astronauts in space,and it was that which drew the world's attention to events - thus my focus on Apollo 13. What would most likely not find acceptance today is the fact that risks were taken only to win a race - the Soviets arguably taking the greater risks. Interestingly, it was the adoption of emergency orientation techniques involved in initial orbital recovery of Soyuz 1 which helped to save Apollo 13. It could be argued that the Apollo 13 crew were only saved because of lessons learned from an earlier tragedy. Truth be told, is that not the case for so many of the modern approaches to dealing with our earthbound risks? p.s. I was 10 when Apollo 1 happened. I was probably more focussed on how "Thunderbirds" dramatised similar events!
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#21 Posted : 18 July 2009 09:39:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw About dramatisations then - what of the theory that the moon landing did not take place and it was all a mock-up? I do not believe it but I am aware of a growing conspiracy theorist movement surrounding this thought. Now that would be being risk averse to the detriment of progress! Also, if it did prove to be true I would laugh until I filled my pampers.......
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#22 Posted : 18 July 2009 16:10:00(UTC)
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Posted By Ron Hunter So who placed the mirror that is still being used today for laser-based observations? Who was it that brought back nearly a third of a tonne of different types of moonrock?
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#23 Posted : 18 July 2009 16:48:00(UTC)
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Posted By GeoffB4 I was told some of it came from a Council tip in Scunthorpe.
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#24 Posted : 18 July 2009 19:42:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Or Scunthorpe town centre, as it is better known. Going back to the risk averse, I always felt better in referring to the preferable situation as being risk aware rather than risk averse, especially when you are talking about young people learning health and safety and their taking those behaviours with them post school or college. Risk averse or risk aware? Does the distinction make a difference to your everyday work?
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#25 Posted : 18 July 2009 21:49:00(UTC)
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Posted By Pete48 I thought everyone knew it was International Rescue. Thunderbirds are go!! Geoff, did you mean the rubble or the mirror? Or is that just a reflection on Scunthorpe? Next question. How many people would have to be involved in a scam to put men on the desert floor of Arizona or the Spanish sierras? Martin, I agree. Risk aware is what everyman needs to be; risk averse is what kept the dinosaurs in the wrong place when those aliens landed. Whoops is that another myth! We still boldly go! http://www.cbsnews.com/s...8/tech/main5171782.shtml Different day, different technology, same risks? Looks much the same risk to me. Mind you I suppose it could all be happening round the back of the Big Brother studio?
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#26 Posted : 19 July 2009 08:30:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Any of you space cadets know if there is an official language to be used by astronauts from different countries? English? American English(Dude! Where's my planet!) or Japanese? Or Russian? Could cause real confusion otherwise. That would be risky.
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#27 Posted : 19 July 2009 11:58:00(UTC)
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Posted By mknott I don't think that you can say that we are more risk averse, but that as time passes, and lessons are learnt, we become more risk aware and therefore we have better management systems in place to manage the "new" risks.
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#28 Posted : 19 July 2009 14:24:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Is it more the case that those involved professionally in health and safety are happy to be risk aware due to their knowledge etc, but that those who drive prosecutions are making business controllers risk averse due to fear of potential prosecutions/media attention? Those who we advise therefore as always have opposing pressures: we say 'that course of action is compliant, you can do this' whereas others say 'if you do this and it goes wrong, you may be sued. Can you afford a £xxxx fine?' Is health and safety professional advice being undermined even before the advice gets to the board?
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#29 Posted : 23 July 2009 16:39:00(UTC)
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Posted By Graham Bullough If I heard aright, a British space expert mentioned during a local radio interview last week that the men who went to the moon in 1969 knew very well that their risk of not landing safely on the moon was about 50;50. Even if they were able to land safely, they also knew that their chance of taking off and returning safely to Earth was also 50:50. However, they were willing to take the risk and ultimately everything went in their favour - no doubt to everyone's relief, especially those who were determined to put an American on the moon before the Russians, irrespective of the cost in terms of lives and dollars.
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#30 Posted : 24 July 2009 14:25:00(UTC)
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Posted By Tabs We in the UK are at risk of perpetuating myths about modern life if we are not careful. I said elsewhere a few days back - show me something that we no longer do purely because of risk. Most of us live within range of microwave masts, which if the risk-averse argument were true, we would not allow. There is more than enough suspicion that they are harmful, yet we are all willing to take that risk, and the risk of having the mobile in our pocket. Most of us know someone injured in a car crash - 3,000 people die per year - yet it is still acceptable. Cigarettes are still smoked. Yachts still need rescuing as do hill walkers and dogs in the sea. Wouldn't go to the moon? Pah! Small fry risks compared to asbestos; driving; seasonal flu; or even being a teenager on our streets. Oh remember Chernobyl? I hear we might be getting some more fusion reactors too ... the potential for harm to major populations are tiny, but real. No we are not risk averse, we just accept / ignore / control / forget.
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#31 Posted : 24 July 2009 14:29:00(UTC)
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Posted By Stuff4blokes Tabs, I gave up smoking nearly 20 years ago because of the risks to my health.
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#32 Posted : 24 July 2009 14:34:00(UTC)
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Posted By Tabs ... and I vowed never to sit on top of a few thousand tonnes of rocket fuel. My point is that just as some still smoke, some would still be prepared to sit aloft Appolo 11. Our willingness as a society to accept risks still exists. :-)
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#33 Posted : 24 July 2009 14:51:00(UTC)
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Posted By martinw Something we no longer do because of risk? Use asbestos. Use kids to work up chimneys. Allow people to legally drive without passing a test. Made heroin an illegal drug(used to be able to buy it in shops). I agree that there are those who ignore some risky aspects of their life, as individuals. But there are a lot of things which as a society we have stopped.
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