Posted By Jim Walker
I want to use some facts to illustrate real risk and perceived risk, using non-work related risks.

One I've put together is that the NY Twin Towers disaster killed under 4500, yet over 28,000 die on USA roads.

I read a newspaper article some time ago, from memory it said:
Recent recommendations for improved rail safety were likely to cost £2M per life saved. However the roads engineers, when costing accident black spots put a figure of £100K per life saved.
Can anyone confirm or deny? Unfortunately the writer gave no cites of reference. If true, can anyone direct me to the data this is based on.

Posted By Ken Urquhart
Jim,

Not really an answer to your question but something that I noticed the other day when reading the BBC News pages and an e-mail reaction section by people affected or likely to have been affected by the Airbus Crash in New York.
(I know that the investigation is in early stages and that it is not yet certain whether it was a Terrorist incident or an Air Accident, although the news this morning suggests that it is more likely to have been an accident).

In regard to risk and perceived risk, the responses posted by people fell mainly into two categories.

If the incident truly was as a result of Terrorist Act(s), then you could sense the Trauma, fear and demoralisation of the respondents.
Terror like this is unacceptable but also the feeling conveyed in the messages portrayed to me a total despondency, a fear that here is a problem; but no, We can get out of it or through it spirit, more an acceptance of fate and fear.

On the other hand, postings by some other respondents sympathised with the circumstances and although saddened and frightened by the event and the outcome, many stated quite clearly that as an Act of Terror it was unacceptable, but, if it were An "Accident" then it was an unfortunate incident!!!!!!!!!

The general implication therefore that I felt was conveyed by this free and open discussion was:-

If a condition arises out of Terror, (Risk), it is unacceptable.

If an incident arises out of Accident (because similar accidents are known and people have experience or knowledge of similar things happening before and generally being a part of life) "Perceived Risk", then this type of event is "Acceptable".

In regard to risk and perceived risk another situation that I became aware of recently, (I am based in Hong Kong).
In the run up to the Chinese National Day Holiday preiod 01/10/2001 Emirates Airlines were offering very cheap, (less than half price) return airfares between Hong Kong and London. (The Flights were scheduled and the carrier had to fly his routes to maintain them so he required to get Bums on seats as it were. Cheap fares is the way to do it. Even at greatly reduced fares it would bring some revenue in to offset the cost and overhead of making and maintaining the schedules)

Despite the atrocities of 11th September and the perceived risk to International Air travel and the threat of terrorisim that most people said they feared and would influence them postponing travel, people were actually queuing up and almost fighting to get seats on these flights.

Travel and Air safety were out of the question for many because of terrorism, but when an Air fare of much less than Half normal price was offered, suddenly the terror threat and risk did not seem to matter any more, what mattered was how cheaply can I travel.
Risk and perceived Risk and the influencer - Money!!!!!!!!!!

I am no physcologist but I find these concepts and behavioural patterns interesting.

Just thought that I would share these points with you and add to your debate.

Regards.

ken Urquhart

Posted By Adrian Watson
Dear Jim,

If you want some interesting insights into risk assessments witb examples, some occupational and some not, I suggest you read the following:

The first four are essential reading:

The psychology of judgement and decision making
Scott Plous
ISBN 0-07-050477-6

Normal Accidents
Charles Perrow
ISBN 0-691-00412-9

What Risk Science, Politics & Public Health
Roger Bate
ISBN 0-7506-4228-9

Life's Adventures virtual Risk in a real world
Roger Bate
ISBN 0-7506-4679-9

These are in addition to these two clasics:

Royal Society's Report Risk Analysis, Perception and management
ISBN 0-85403-467-6

Human Safety and Risk Management
AI Glendon & E McKenna
ISBN 0-412-40250-5.

Regards Adrian Watson